Greek farce: Let them eat baklava Commentary: Europe should let Greece default

«Ο Αριστοτέλης θα ήταν περήφανος!». Με αυτή τη φράση αρχίζει το άρθρο του Brett Arends στο MarketWatch και συνεχίζει λέγοντας ότι οι Έλληνες προχώρησαν ένα βήμα πέρα από το θεατρικό κατεστημένο της αρχαιότητας, οπότε και δεν συνδυαζόταν το δράμα με την κωμωδία, καταφέρνοντας να στήσουν ταυτόχρονα ένα δράμα και μια φάρσα μαζί.

Γελώντας ειρωνικά, ο συντάκτης επισημαίνει την γκάφα του Έλληνα πρωθυπουργού να ζητήσει δημοψήφισμα κατόπιν εορτής και παράλληλα να μην έχει αναφέρει τίποτα για την πρόθεσή του στον υπουργό Οικονομίας της χώρας.

Πολλοί αναλυτές, Έλληνες και ξένοι, ανάμεσα τους και ο Kώστας Πάρης, ανταποκριτής του Dow Jones, πιστεύουν ότι δύσκολα θα κερδίσει το στοίχημα που έβαλε ο Παπανδρέου και πως ταυτόχρονα ρισκάρει πολλά.

Ο Arends κάνει λόγο για «μονόλογο» του Παπανδρέου σε μία χαοτική ατμόσφαιρα. Τονίζει δε πως η Ευρώπη δεν έχει ανάγκη την Ελλάδα και υπογραμμίζει ότι τα νούμερα μίλησαν μόλις εχθές, με την Ευρώπη, τελικά, να χάνει περισσότερα χρήματα από ότι εάν διέγραφαν το χρέος.

Αφήστε, λέει ο Arends, τους επενδυτές και όσους ευθύνονται για την κρίση να βγάλουν το φίδι από την τρύπα και εγγυηθείτε ασφάλεια στους καταθέτες.
Οι υπόλοιποι, ας φάνε μπακλαβά!

Διότι, εάν η Ελλάδα κουνήσει το μαντήλι στο ευρώ, οι διακοπές στα ελληνικά νησιά, το ουζάκι, τα γλυκά και το ελαιόλαδο

 το άρθρο όπως δημοσιεύτηκε!

By Brett Arends, MarketWatch

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Aristotle would be proud.

The philosopher of Greek drama divided the works of theater into tragedy and comedy, never the twain to meet. But his fellow countrymen are going one better. They are currently staging a tragedy that is also a farce.

Not only did Prime Minister George Papandreou call for a “referendum” on the latest European bailout, but it turns out he didn’t bother telling his own finance minister first.

Ha-ha!

Click to Play

Papandreou’s poker face

 

The high-stakes gamble by the Greek prime minister is unlikely to pay off.

Maybe Aristotle’s famous, long-lost book on comedy has finally turned up in the government archives, and Papandreou is putting on a one-man recital.

The situation remains fluid — or, to be more accurate, chaotic.

But you have to wonder why the Europeans don’t just kick these clowns to the curb. Europe doesn’t need Greece. It gets no benefit from having Greece in the euro EURUSD +0.84% . Greece’s entire debts come to $366 billion. That’s 4% of the gross domestic product of the euro zone. Greece’s GDP is less than 2%. More money was “lost” during yesterday’s stock-market tumble than in a massive write-off. Market Snapshot: U.S. stocks rattled by Greek bailout move.

Europe could eject the Greeks, write off most of the debt, monetize the losses and move on. Guarantee bank depositors, but let the stockholders, bondholders and credit-default counterparties take their losses.

Let them eat baklava!

Reuters

Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou

If Greece is ejected from the euro and launches a new drachma, Greek pastries, olive oil, real estate, island vacations and ouzo will quickly become a bargain again.

Meanwhile, the crisis, as ever, makes us look for opportunities. Michael Gayed, chief investment strategist at Pension Partners, an investment advisory firm with $150 million under management, draws my attention to two things. When the crisis blew up Monday, small-cap stocks initially held up better than large caps. And inflation-protected Treasury bonds held up compared with nominals.

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His take? The “risk on” trade remains intact. The rally that began at the start of last month remains in force, and we are heading for a big fourth-quarter rally. “The market is acting like it wants to go up,” Gayed said.

I mention Gayed because he accurately called the summer slump and the rally that followed. Of course, that doesn’t mean he’ll be right this time. Read the latest MarketWatch commentary by Michael A. Gayed .

If you’re hugely bullish, you’d buy small caps for a trade. My take? I think high-quality large caps already offered a better deal for investors than small caps.

This is not merely my opinion but that of a number of shrewd and independent money managers, including the likes of Jeremy Grantham and Charles de Vaulx. ( ‘This is no market for young men,’ Jeremy Grantham told MarketWatch in September. )

If they’re right, then selloffs are a chance to load up on some of the higher-quality large cap stocks, here and in Europe.

Brett Arends is a senior columnist for MarketWatch and a personal-finance columnist for the Wall Street Journal.